This has been a month of significant price drops in many companies, but assuming that they are therefore more likely to be under valued is a mistake, since the intrinsic values of these companies have also changed, because the ERP that I will be using to value the trendy boutique s on October 26, 2018, will be 5.89%, much higher than the 5.38% at the start of the month. Check out the biggest market losers: I plan to take a closer look at the stocks that have been pummeled the most during the month, including 3M and Caterpillar, to see if they are cheap at October 26 prices, and using an October 26 ERP in my valuation. Bonus from short sales: I do have a portion of my portfolio that benefits from a sell off, primarily in short sales and those have provided partial offsets to my losses. That is why, at different points in time, you have seen Twitter and Facebook in my portfolio in the past and may well see Netflix and Tesla in the future (just not now).
Revisit existing holdings: I normally revalue every company in my portfolio at least once a year, but after a month like this one, I will have to accelerate the process. Asia seems to have been hit the worst this month, with China, Small Asia (South East Asia, Pakistan, Bangladesh) and Japan all seeing double digit declines in aggregate market capitalization. In the last few weeks, the market capitalization of Apple and Amazon each hit a trillion dollars, a threshold not seen before in public markets. Amazon (AMZN) – AMZN dropped back below $1,900. I did sell short on Amazon and Apple at the start of the month, and while I would like to claim prescience, it was pure luck on timing, and the market downdraft during the month has helped me. It has been a good month for gold, with prices up 4.44%, though there is little sign of panic buying pushing up prices.
That said, intrinsic values generally change less than market prices do, as mood and momentum shift. With the assessment of market pain behind us, we can turn to looking at the fundamentals, again looking for clues in why stocks have had such a tough month. Base Year Earnings/Cashflows: The earnings reports that have come out for companies in diverse sectors in the last two weeks seem to reinforce the strong earnings story. Intrinsic value can change over time: I believe that intrinsic value is a dynamic number that changes over time, not only because new information may come out about a company. In fact, halving the expected growth rate from 2019 on from the current estimate of 7.29% to 4.71% (the compounded average annual earnings growth rate over the last 10 years) reduces the equity risk premium to 5.28%, but even that number is a healthy one, relative to historic norms.
The year-to-date numbers do tell a bigger story that has been glossed over in analysis. I think it’s a given that Tesla will start to pay a lot more taxes as it starts to book significant profits over the next few years, but we have no past data to help us determine what % of EBT will go towards taxes. I still have a lot to learn. Hesitate border positions in the have market. Loeffler and others, including Senators Dianne Feinstein and Richard Burr, came under fire for dropping stocks from their portfolios ahead of the massive March stock market selloff that came on the heels of the worsening coronavirus pandemic, which the lawmakers received briefings on. stock markets were riding high for the first couple of months of 2020 before plunging in March as the COVID-19 pandemic hit and many segments of the U.S. It is possible that we are seeing an end to that divergence, suggesting that the US markets will move more closely with the other global markets going forward. If you do lower expected earnings growth going forward, perhaps reflecting a delayed response to the stronger dollar and higher rates, the equity risk premium will drop.